And the blue counties are those above 1,500 people per square mile. Most of the purple counties are clustered at densities of between 400 and 1,500 people per square mile. "Most of the red counties have densities of fewer than 500 people per square mile. So, what did the density divide look like this year?Īn excellent first draft analysis of the (still incomplete) county data by Bloomberg/City Lab found the tipping point to be 700 people per square mile. Rather than stimulating a broad national pro-Democratic backlash across suburban communities in general, as is sometimes suggested by political observers, the election of Donald Trump has instead further magnified this existing divergence-leaving American suburbia, like the nation itself, closely and deeply divided between the two major parties." "Democratic suburban growth has been especially concentrated in the nation's largest metropolitan areas, reflecting the combined presence of both relatively liberal whites (across education levels) and substantial minority populations, but suburbs elsewhere remain decidedly, even increasingly, Republican in their collective partisan alignment. In his 2019 paper, "The Suburbanization of the Democratic Party, 1992–2018," Boston College political science professor David Hopkins found a similar density divide. Above 800 people per square mile, there is a 66% chance that you voted Democrat." Put another way, below 800 people per square mile, there is a 66% chance that you voted Republican. David Troy, a software engineer, plotted the results and found that "At about 800 people per square mile, people switch from voting primarily Republican to voting primarily Democratic. But, less densely populated suburban areas remained red. In the wake of the 2012 election, Democrats found success in the suburbs nestled next to major metro areas. We don't have all the data yet, but it seems as if, once again, density was the dividing line between blue and red suburbs. They were the linchpin of Biden's victory, but failed to deliver success for House Democrats in states like Texas, Missouri, Ohio or Indiana. Trump's attacks on Joe Biden as a secret supporter of socialism fell flat, but that didn't insulate House Democratic candidates from being portrayed as such. Donald Trump's divisive and polarizing style cost him the White House, but his unpopularity didn't doom down-ballot Republicans. There were lots of mixed messages that came out of this election.
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